Tag Archives: COVID

How Likely Is It I Will See a Person Pass On of COVID in California? . Here Is What the Pragmatic Prophet Says.

Written and published on 11 August 2020, by Alice B. Clagett

Image: “Salon of the electric train 81-765 / 766/767 ‘Moscow’ with red stickers on keeping the distance. March-April 2020, the period of the COVID-19 pandemic,” by https://www.mos.ru/news/item/71988073/ … April 2020, in Wikimedia Commons … CC BY 4.0

Dear Ones,

I read in the Los Angeles Times that 99 people passed on of COVID in California yesterday (which seems like a pretty scary number, to me) …

Link: “Tracking the Coronavirus in California,” in the Los Angeles Times …  https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/ ..

I have been seeing these pretty high statistics for some time, here in California. Today I wondered how likely it would be I might see a person pass on of COVID, so I crunched the numbers. Here is what I found out …

There are about 41 million people in California, per Google.

(99 COVID deaths yesterday) divided by (41 million California population) times 100 (to get percent) = 0.0024 percent, which is to say, 0.0024 per 100 people.

That decimal point is way too small, so I recalculated for the number of deaths per 10 million people, like this …

(99 COVID deaths) divided by (41 million California population) times 10,000,000 (to get number of deaths per 10M) = 24 COVID deaths per 10M people. I guess I would have had to see 10 million people yesterday in order to see 24 people pass on of COVID?

But I don’t see more than 10 or 20 people on a usual day.

I thought to recalculate how many California people it would have taken to have 1 COVID death in the group yesterday. I figured it like this …

(99 COVID deaths) divided by (41 million California population) = (1 COVID death) divided by (‘x’ number of California people)

99 / 41,000,000 = 1/x
x = 41,000,000 /99 = 414,141 people

So I might expect to see 1 COVID death yesterday had I been amongst 414,141 people.

But I only see 10 or 20 people daily. Under lockdown conditions it seems to me I might never see a COVID death. That would explain why things seem so normal here in the San Fernando Valley, I guess.

Let’s say I took a public bus to work and served food to visitors at a fast food restaurant drive-in window. How many people would I have met yesterday in that case?

Let’s say I was one of 20 people on the public bus going to work, and one of 20 people on the bus on the way home. That would be 40 people encountered on the bus.

I see here that a fast food restaurant serves about 300 customers a day …

Link: “9 Fast Food Stats That Will Blow Your Mind,” in Fox Business … https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/9-fast-food-stats-that-will-blow-your-mind ..

Say there are 3 customers per car, and I am one of four servers in a 24-hour period. That might mean the fast food restaurant serves 100 cars a day (which is 300 customers divided by 3 people per car). I am one of four servers, so I might serve a fourth of the 100 cars daily. That would be 25 cars, and 25 drivers that I encounter daily.

Then there are the 10 people at home and on my own street, neighbors and friends.

So the total people encountered by a fast food server daily in California would be 40 on public transit, 25 cars served at the fast food drive-up window, and 10 people at home or on my street.

That would be a total 75 people I meet daily as a fast food server. As figured above, there is one daily COVID death in California per 414,141 people. That would be a great many more than the 75 people I would meet as a fast food server. So, I am guessing, the likelihood I might see a COVID death while serving fast food is still quite low.

I just wondered about this, as the Los Angeles Times daily COVID-19 statistics seem pretty scary to me. I guess we are not that likely to see anyone passing on of COVID during the entire course of the pandemic … which, to me, is very good news, in a way.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars
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–reposted from Link: “How Likely Is It I Will See a Person Pass On of COVID in California?” by Alice B. Clagett, written and published on 11 August 2020 … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-jsH ..

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Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License

Except where otherwise noted, “Pragmatic Prophecy” by Alice B. Clagett …  https://pragmaticprophecy.com … is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0) … https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ ..

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United States, California, COVID-19, COVID, coronavirus pandemic, community health, health,

Shop Till You Drop Dead of COVID? Here Is What the Pragmatic Prophet Says!

Image: “A Corner Shop in Boston, Massachusetts,” by Elvis Batiz, 15 June 2012 … in Wikimedia Commons … https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Boston_corner_shop.jpg … CC BY 2.0

The ‘word from on high’ is: HVAC in retail stores across Los Angeles may be causing customers to catch COVID-19.

I urgently ask Mayor Garcetti and Governor Newsom to mandate that California retailers sanitize the air filters in their HVAC systems daily.

I urge that President Trump propose similar measures to managers of high-rise buildings nationwide, with emphasis on New York and New Jersey.

Written and published on 29 July 2020, by Alice B. Clagett, the Pragmatic Prophet

–reposted from Link: “Shop Till You Drop Dead of COVID? Here Is What the Pragmatic Prophet Says!” Written and published on 29 July 2020, by Alice B. Clagett, the Pragmatic Prophet … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-jjr ..

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Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License

Except where otherwise noted, “Pragmatic Prophecy” by Alice B. Clagett …  https://pragmaticprophecy.com … is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0) … https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ ..

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community health, health, pandemic, COVID, COVID-19, HVAC, retail establishments, stores, restaurants, air filters, economics, economy, employment, United States, countries of Earth, California, Gavin Newsom, Eric Garcetti, President Trump, skyscrapers, high-rise buildings, New York, New Jersey, government, common good,

COVID-19 Tidbits: 2020 Predicted Excess Deaths for China . by Alice B. Clagett

Written and published on 22 May 2020; revised on 27 July 2020; by Alice B. Clagett

Image: “2019-nCoV cases in China,” – Own work, base map from File:China Blank Map with Province Names.svg, from Wikimedia Commons … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:COVID-19_Confirmed_Cases_Animated_Map.webm … CC BY-SA 4.0

  • IMPROBABILITY OF WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION’S DAILY SITUATION REPORTS ON TOTAL DEATHS IN CHINA
  • FEBRUARY 2020 MAP OF SPREAD OF COVID-19 THROUGHOUT CHINA
  • WHAT ARE THE 2020 PREDICTED EXCESS DEATHS FROM COVID-19 AND OTHER CAUSES FOR CHINA?

Dear Ones,

Here are a few COVID-19 tidbits regarding predicted death rate from COVID-19 in China …

IMPROBABILITY OF WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION’S DAILY SITUATION REPORTS ON TOTAL DEATHS IN CHINA

I was wondering about the spread of COVID-19 in China, as the World Health Organization Daily Situation Reports have not been listing probable statistics for China since 18 April 2020. For instance, according to the WHO Situation Reports, only 3 additional COVID-19 deaths have been reported for China between 18 April 2020 and 21 May 2020 …

WHO reported 4642 total deaths for China as of Situation Report 89 (data received by 18 April 2020) … Link: “Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Situation Report – 89,” by the World Health Organization (WHO) … https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200418-sitrep-89-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=3643dd38_2 ..

WHO reported 4645 total deaths for China as of Situation Report 122 (data received by 21 May 2020) … Link: “Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Situation Report – 122,” by the World Health Organization (WHO) … https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200521-covid-19-sitrep-122.pdf?sfvrsn=24f20e05_2 ..

In perusing Situation Report 122, I wondered how it could be that there had been insignificant spread of the epidemic in China, as compared with Europe, North America, and Brazil? …

FEBRUARY 2020 MAP OF SPREAD OF COVID-19 THROUGHOUT CHINA

Today I found a map dated February 2020 that shows the virus has spread from Hubei to other areas of China … https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/journals/content/nejm/2020/nejm_2020.382.issue-18/nejmoa2002032/20200424/images/img_medium/nejmoa2002032_f1.jpeg ..

That map was in this scientific article …

Link: “Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China,” by Weii-jie Guan, Ph.D., Zheng-yi Ni, M.D., Yu Hu, M.D., et al., for the China Medical Treatment Expert Group for Covid-19, published on 28 February 2020 at NEJM.org …
N Engl J Med 2020; 382:1708-1720 … 30 April 2020 … DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 …  https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 ..

WHAT ARE THE 2020 PREDICTED EXCESS DEATHS FROM COVID-19 AND OTHER CAUSES FOR CHINA?

I have not been able to find online the predicted excess deaths from COVID-19 and other causes for China (although I may have simply overlooked the statistical analyses). If the ratio of predicted deaths were the same as that for the United States, the predicted number of deaths might be figured thus …

United States population: 328,200,000
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Predicted Excess Deaths from COVID-19 and Other Causes in the United States for 2020 (1): 99,000 deaths

China population: 1,393,000,000

The ratio would be: x predicted China excess deaths / 1,393,000,000 China population = 99,000 predicted United States excess deaths / 328,200,000 United States population

x = 99,000 / 329,200,000 x 1,393,000,000 = 420,192 predicted excess deaths for China in 2020

It seems to me likely that a number of countries may be underreporting COVID-19 infections and deaths for lack of manpower or possibly also for political reasons.

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–Alice B. Clagett

–reposted from Link: “How Many COVID Deaths Will There Be in China This Year? – Here Is What the Pragmatic Prophet Says …,” written and published on 22 May 2020; revised on 27 July 2020; by Alice B. Clagett … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-ihc ..

Previously titled: COVID-19 Tidbits: 2020 Predicted Excess Deaths for China 

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FOOTNOTE

(1) 99,000 deaths are an average of the range of excess deaths predicted by the CDC; see … Link: “COVID-19 Tidbits: ‘General Pandemonium’ Deaths for the United States?” by Alice B. Clagett, written and published on 22 May 2020 … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-ihj ..

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Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License

Except where otherwise noted, “Pragmatic Prophecy” by Alice B. Clagett …  https://pragmaticprophecy.com … is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0) … https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ ..

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COVID, community health, United States, countries of Earth, cities of Earth, China, Brazil, Europe, COVID-19,

Awakening with Planet Earth

Written and published on 22 May 2020

  • IMPROBABILITY OF WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION’S DAILY SITUATION REPORTS ON TOTAL DEATHS IN CHINA
  • FEBRUARY 2020 MAP OF SPREAD OF COVID-19 THROUGHOUT CHINA
  • WHAT ARE THE 2020 PREDICTED EXCESS DEATHS FROM COVID-19 AND OTHER CAUSES FOR CHINA?

Dear Ones,

Here are a few COVID-19 tidbits regarding predicted death rate from COVID-19 in China …

IMPROBABILITY OF WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION’S DAILY SITUATION REPORTS ON TOTAL DEATHS IN CHINA

I was wondering about the spread of COVID-19 in China, as the World Health Organization Daily Situation Reports have not been listing probable statistics for China since 18 April 2020. For instance, according to the WHO Situation Reports, only 3 additional COVID-19 deaths have been reported for China between 18 April 2020 and 21 May 2020 …

WHO reported 4642 total deaths for China as of Situation Report 89 (data received by 18 April 2020) … https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200418-sitrep-89-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=3643dd38_2

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