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Pragmatic Prophet: COVID-19 Pandemic in California: Could Be the Worst Is Over

Written and published on 7 July 2021
By Alice B. Clagett

Image: “Policemen in Seattle wearing masks made by the Red Cross, during the influenza epidemic. December 1918,” author unknown, December 1918, in Wikimedia Commons … https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Spanish_flu_in_1918,_Police_officers_in_masks,_Seattle_Police_Department_detail,_from-_165-WW-269B-25-police-l_(cropped).jpg … public domain

Image: “Policemen in Seattle wearing masks made by the Red Cross, during the influenza epidemic. December 1918,” author unknown, December 1918, in Wikimedia Commons … https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Spanish_flu_in_1918,_Police_officers_in_masks,_Seattle_Police_Department_detail,_from-_165-WW-269B-25-police-l_(cropped).jpg … public domain

Dear Ones,

It appears to me that the COVID delta variant has taken over COVID cases in CA, and because it is very infectious, infections with COVID are increasing. But from the statistics I see that daily deaths from COVID in California are holding steady.

If that is true, then the COVID epidemic, which has so far lasted 14 months in the United States, is falling in line with the 1918 Influenza Epidemic, which lasted 15 months. Could be the worst is over.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

Citation: “Delta Is Now State’s No. 1 Variant,”  by Rong-Gong Lin II and Luke Money, 5 July 2021,  in Los Angeles Times, 5 July 2021, pages A1, A6

Link: “Local News: As delta variant grows more prevalent, L.A. County reports largest daily increase in coronavirus cases since April,” by Erika Martin and Carlos Saucedo, 1 July 2021 … https://ktla.com/news/local-news/as-delta-variant-grows-more-prevalent-l-a-county-reports-largest-daily-increase-in-coronavirus-cases-since-april/ ..

Link: “Tracking the Coronavirus in California,” by Los Angeles Times Staff, in Los Angeles Times … https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/ ..

Link: “COVID-19 Pandemic,” in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic ..

Link: “Spanish Flu [1918 Influenza Pandemic],” in English Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu ..

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community health, health, coronavirus, COVID-19, COVID,

Projected Future Curve of COVID-19 Pandemic . by Alice B. Clagett

Written and published on 14 February 2021

Dear Ones,

I was wondering what the future curve of COVID mortality might look like. I found a curve for deaths for the Spanish flu epidemic, which I will attach here. It was ‘W’ shaped, with two small upticks and a big one in the middle …

Image: “Three pandemic waves: weekly combined influenza and pneumonia mortality, United Kingdom, 1918–1919,” Three waves of death during the pandemic: weekly combined influenza and pneumonia mortality, United Kingdom, 1918–1919. The waves were broadly the same globally. Taubenberger JK, Morens DM. 1918 Influenza: The Mother of All Pandemics. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006;12(1):15-22., CC BY … in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#/media/File:1918_spanish_flu_waves.gif … public domain

Image: “Three pandemic waves: weekly combined influenza and pneumonia mortality, United Kingdom, 1918–1919,” Three waves of death during the pandemic: weekly combined influenza and pneumonia mortality, United Kingdom, 1918–1919. The waves were broadly the same globally. Taubenberger JK, Morens DM. 1918 Influenza: The Mother of All Pandemics. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006;12(1):15-22., CC BY … in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#/media/File:1918_spanish_flu_waves.gif … public domain

I see the COVID-19 death curve so far … in a way … resembles the first two upticks of the Spanish flu curve … which is to say, a small uptick, followed after some months by the current, much larger, 3-peaked uptick. That is the red line in this graph …

Image: “NCHS Mortality Reporting System: Pneumonia, Influenza and COVID-19 (PIC) Mortality, United States, October 2, 2016 – January 16, 2021,” in CDC … https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/01222021/nchs-mortality-report.html … public domain … DESCRIPTION: The red line represents the weekly mortality rate.

Image: “NCHS Mortality Reporting System: Pneumonia, Influenza and COVID-19 (PIC) Mortality, United States, October 2, 2016 – January 16, 2021,” in CDC … https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/01222021/nchs-mortality-report.html … public domain …

DESCRIPTION: The red line represents the weekly mortality rate.

I thought the future of the curve for COVID deaths might resemble the final small uptick of the Spanish flu mortality curve … in which case we might see a decline in COVID deaths for March and April 2021 or so, and then an uptick lower than the current one, and then with luck, an end to the COVID pandemic.

As to the issue of lack of efficacy of the current COVID vaccines with the new COVID strains, I am not sure that would aversely influence my prediction that the resolution of the COVID mortality chart may occur after only one smaller chart uptick this year. That is because of the placebo effect (or possibly the positive health effect of decreased pathogen load) of vaccines, which might be illustrated as follows …

A vaccine was created for the Spanish flu long years ago, but due to the limitations of microscopic resolution in the early 1900s, the vaccine targeted a bacillus rather than a virus … the bacillus being quite a lot larger than the virus, and thus visible through the microscopy of the day.

Although the ‘Spanish flu vaccine’ did not prevent death through Spanish flu, yet the epidemic in the early 1900s ended after the vaccination campaign.

In the same way, I am guessing … whether through the placebo effect or through an effect of decreased pathogen load (in this case, more narrowly labeled ‘viral load’) … the COVID flu epidemic may end after the COVID vaccination campaign has been fully implemented.

(By the by, it seems to me that for placebo effect or the positive health effect of decreased viral load, the regular flu shot might have worked as well as the COVID vaccine, and might have made a far cheaper and speedier end to the pandemic, had it been promoted as a “COVID plus regular flu” vaccine.)

Alice Clagett

I note that the medical term for one of the symptoms of both Spanish flu and moderate to severe COVID-19 is ‘prostration’, which means marked loss of strength, or physical exhaustion.

This article is also featured in my blog “Awakening with Planet Earth.”

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Except where otherwise noted, “Pragmatic Prophecy” by Alice B. Clagett …  https://pragmaticprophecy.com … is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0) … https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ ..

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community health, coronavirus, COVID, COVID vaccine, COVID-19,

Recent Trends in COVID Cases and Deaths in the United States and California

Imaged on 31 October 2020; published on 1 November 2020; by Alice B. Clagett

Dear Ones,

Here are recent trends in COVID cases and deaths in the United States, as compared to California. For my analysis of these trends, please see the caption below the image …

Image: Recent Trends in COVID Cases and Deaths in the United States and California,” by Alice B. Clagett, 31 October 2020, CC BY-SA 4.0 … DESCRIPTION: For the United States, I note that new COVID cases have greatly increased this autumn (as expected because of the flu season) but that new COVID deaths have plateaued at less than half what they were in the Spring of 2020. That may mean that the COVID virus has become less deadly, as was the case with the Influenza virus after the first few years. It might also mean that those most susceptible to COVID were first hit and passed on because of it. Or both might be true: COVID may be less deadly now, and as well, the most vulnerable sector of the United States population may, in the main, already have passed on. In comparing the California graphs to the United States graphs, I note that new California cases are now down-trending, whereas new United States cases are up-trending. New California deaths rose to a new high in late Summer, but are now steadily declining. Comparatively speaking, both the new Cases and the new Deaths graphs bode well for California … CREDIT: Rough sketch based on New York Times statistics.

Image: Recent Trends in COVID Cases and Deaths in the United States and California,” by Alice B. Clagett, 31 October 2020, CC BY-SA 4.0 …

DESCRIPTION: For the United States, I note that new COVID cases have greatly increased this autumn (as expected because of the flu season) but that new COVID deaths have plateaued at less than half what they were in the Spring of 2020.

That may mean that the COVID virus has become less deadly, as was the case with the Influenza virus after the first few years. It might also mean that those most susceptible to COVID were first hit and passed on because of it. Or both might be true: COVID may be less deadly now, and as well, the most vulnerable sector of the United States population may, in the main, already have passed on.

In comparing the California graphs to the United States graphs, I note that new California cases are now down-trending, whereas new United States cases are up-trending. New California deaths rose to a new high in late Summer, but are now steadily declining. Comparatively speaking, both the new Cases and the new Deaths graphs bode well for California …

CREDIT: Rough sketch based on New York Times statistics.

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–from Link: “Recent Trends in COVID Cases and Deaths in the United States and California,” by Alice B. Clagett, imaged on 31 October 2020; published on 1 November 2020 … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-kpZ ..

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Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License

Except where otherwise noted, “Pragmatic Prophecy” by Alice B. Clagett …  https://pragmaticprophecy.com … is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0) … https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ ..

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COVID-19, coronavirus, California, United States, community health,

Sobre el Coronavirus

These recommendations for diet and COVID-19 seem well worth the read to me.

El Blog de Camilo Acosta

Comparto experiencias de cómo mis amigos terapeutas en el país de Camboya han comenzado a tratar el coronavirus con un muy buen éxito.

Se trata de la utilización del ajo blanco.  Lo usan de la siguiente manera:

Un solo diente de ajo se pela y se machaca, se le agregan unas 5 gotas de activador de sábila o alguna presentación de sábila de la que se disponga, se utiliza una manta pequeña y se le saca el jugo al ajo. Esa pequeña porción de jugo de ajo se coloca en un gotero. Se aplican 3 gotas en cada fosa nasal y el paciente comienza a estornudar y a excretar por la nariz los fluidos propios de la gripe. Lo hacen por dos veces al dia (cada vez con un ajo fresco).

Sugerencias de nuestros amigos Camboyanos para pacientes infectados con el coronavirus:

*Ingerir agua cada media hora para evitar la…

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COVID-19 and Central HVAC . by Alice B. Clagett

Awakening with Planet Earth

Written and published on 17 March 2020

Dear Ones,

Here is a hunch for the wary: If possible, I advise staying away from buildings with central HVAC, such as highrise apartment buildings and office buildings during the coronavirus pandemic. My feeling is that the coronavirus germs might be carried through the HVAC from apartment to apartment or office to office.

I wonder if it would be safe for a person to turn off HVAC vents in their highrise apartment or office during the height of the pandemic? If not, then might wearing masks and gloves in highrise buildings with central HVAC be helpful?

In homes with central HVAC, the same might apply. If, for example, one family member falls ill. That person might stay in a room with the HVAC vents shut off, and with maybe a floor heater for heat instead. For families, I wonder if it might be…

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Coronavirus: Urgent Plea to U.S. Mayors and Governors to Establish Stores of Staples in Case of Shortage . by Alice B. Clagett

Awakening with Planet Earth

Written and published on 7 March 2020

Dear Ones,

I was in my local Walmart a few days ago and noticed they were short of staples such as rice and dry noodles, and out of bags of beans. I feel each family must buy what staples we can, as soon as we are able, given what is available in the stores. I feel we might wish to store up enough for 3-4 months for our family, in case stores run short of supplies.

Bottled water is also important to have on hand; second best would be water filters such as Brita or the like. I also suggest water disinfectant in whatever form can be purchased, in the unlikely case urban water supplies should be compromised.

I ask that United States mayors and governors purchase for their towns and states a supply of staples … grains such as wheat, corn, millet…

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Coronavirus in the United States: Stay Home If Possible Now? . by Alice B. Clagett

Awakening with Planet Earth

Written and published on 7 March 2020

Dear Ones,

I have read that the incubation period for the Coronavirus is unknown, but might be from 2 to 14 days. I also read that it is possible some, even many, people are getting a very mild illness rather than grave symptoms.

Two days ago I was in Walmart and saw there a young child quite sick with a cough, walking and crying alongside his mother. Then today I saw a young woman who had a cough.

It is not known one way or the other, but I presume it is possible that some of those with mild coughs in Washington State, California, and New York right now, among others, might have very mild cases of Coronavirus that are going beneath the radar …

LInk: “Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.,” by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), updated…

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