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COVID-19 Tidbits: 2020 Predicted Excess Deaths for China . by Alice B. Clagett

Written and published on 22 May 2020; revised on 27 July 2020; by Alice B. Clagett

Image: “2019-nCoV cases in China,” – Own work, base map from File:China Blank Map with Province Names.svg, from Wikimedia Commons … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:COVID-19_Confirmed_Cases_Animated_Map.webm … CC BY-SA 4.0

  • IMPROBABILITY OF WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION’S DAILY SITUATION REPORTS ON TOTAL DEATHS IN CHINA
  • FEBRUARY 2020 MAP OF SPREAD OF COVID-19 THROUGHOUT CHINA
  • WHAT ARE THE 2020 PREDICTED EXCESS DEATHS FROM COVID-19 AND OTHER CAUSES FOR CHINA?

Dear Ones,

Here are a few COVID-19 tidbits regarding predicted death rate from COVID-19 in China …

IMPROBABILITY OF WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION’S DAILY SITUATION REPORTS ON TOTAL DEATHS IN CHINA

I was wondering about the spread of COVID-19 in China, as the World Health Organization Daily Situation Reports have not been listing probable statistics for China since 18 April 2020. For instance, according to the WHO Situation Reports, only 3 additional COVID-19 deaths have been reported for China between 18 April 2020 and 21 May 2020 …

WHO reported 4642 total deaths for China as of Situation Report 89 (data received by 18 April 2020) … Link: “Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Situation Report – 89,” by the World Health Organization (WHO) … https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200418-sitrep-89-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=3643dd38_2 ..

WHO reported 4645 total deaths for China as of Situation Report 122 (data received by 21 May 2020) … Link: “Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Situation Report – 122,” by the World Health Organization (WHO) … https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200521-covid-19-sitrep-122.pdf?sfvrsn=24f20e05_2 ..

In perusing Situation Report 122, I wondered how it could be that there had been insignificant spread of the epidemic in China, as compared with Europe, North America, and Brazil? …

FEBRUARY 2020 MAP OF SPREAD OF COVID-19 THROUGHOUT CHINA

Today I found a map dated February 2020 that shows the virus has spread from Hubei to other areas of China … https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/journals/content/nejm/2020/nejm_2020.382.issue-18/nejmoa2002032/20200424/images/img_medium/nejmoa2002032_f1.jpeg ..

That map was in this scientific article …

Link: “Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China,” by Weii-jie Guan, Ph.D., Zheng-yi Ni, M.D., Yu Hu, M.D., et al., for the China Medical Treatment Expert Group for Covid-19, published on 28 February 2020 at NEJM.org …
N Engl J Med 2020; 382:1708-1720 … 30 April 2020 … DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 …  https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 ..

WHAT ARE THE 2020 PREDICTED EXCESS DEATHS FROM COVID-19 AND OTHER CAUSES FOR CHINA?

I have not been able to find online the predicted excess deaths from COVID-19 and other causes for China (although I may have simply overlooked the statistical analyses). If the ratio of predicted deaths were the same as that for the United States, the predicted number of deaths might be figured thus …

United States population: 328,200,000
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Predicted Excess Deaths from COVID-19 and Other Causes in the United States for 2020 (1): 99,000 deaths

China population: 1,393,000,000

The ratio would be: x predicted China excess deaths / 1,393,000,000 China population = 99,000 predicted United States excess deaths / 328,200,000 United States population

x = 99,000 / 329,200,000 x 1,393,000,000 = 420,192 predicted excess deaths for China in 2020

It seems to me likely that a number of countries may be underreporting COVID-19 infections and deaths for lack of manpower or possibly also for political reasons.

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–Alice B. Clagett

–reposted from Link: “How Many COVID Deaths Will There Be in China This Year? – Here Is What the Pragmatic Prophet Says …,” written and published on 22 May 2020; revised on 27 July 2020; by Alice B. Clagett … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-ihc ..

Previously titled: COVID-19 Tidbits: 2020 Predicted Excess Deaths for China 

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FOOTNOTE

(1) 99,000 deaths are an average of the range of excess deaths predicted by the CDC; see … Link: “COVID-19 Tidbits: ‘General Pandemonium’ Deaths for the United States?” by Alice B. Clagett, written and published on 22 May 2020 … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-ihj ..

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Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License

Except where otherwise noted, “Pragmatic Prophecy” by Alice B. Clagett …  https://pragmaticprophecy.com … is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0) … https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ ..

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COVID, community health, United States, countries of Earth, cities of Earth, China, Brazil, Europe, COVID-19,

Awakening with Planet Earth

Written and published on 22 May 2020

  • IMPROBABILITY OF WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION’S DAILY SITUATION REPORTS ON TOTAL DEATHS IN CHINA
  • FEBRUARY 2020 MAP OF SPREAD OF COVID-19 THROUGHOUT CHINA
  • WHAT ARE THE 2020 PREDICTED EXCESS DEATHS FROM COVID-19 AND OTHER CAUSES FOR CHINA?

Dear Ones,

Here are a few COVID-19 tidbits regarding predicted death rate from COVID-19 in China …

IMPROBABILITY OF WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION’S DAILY SITUATION REPORTS ON TOTAL DEATHS IN CHINA

I was wondering about the spread of COVID-19 in China, as the World Health Organization Daily Situation Reports have not been listing probable statistics for China since 18 April 2020. For instance, according to the WHO Situation Reports, only 3 additional COVID-19 deaths have been reported for China between 18 April 2020 and 21 May 2020 …

WHO reported 4642 total deaths for China as of Situation Report 89 (data received by 18 April 2020) … https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200418-sitrep-89-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=3643dd38_2

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The Pragmatic Prophet: Google Apocalypse?

Written and published on 25 September 2020 by Alice B. Clagett

Dear Ones,

THE PRAGMATIC PROPHET SAYS: Could be the East Coast internet will become separate from that of the West Coast, if United States federal government decentralization continues as I predict. It might be good to get financial records offline and onto a flash drive or onto CDs, in case the national versions of Google and HR Block online should begin to fail.

As well, I figure if I plan my day around non-internet activities, then Google outages may not be too important to me.

Link: “Google Services Go Down in Some Parts of the U.S.,” by Daisuke Wakabayashi and Michael Levenson, 24 September 2020 … in the New York Times … https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/24/technology/google-service ..

–from Link: “The Pragmatic Prophet: Google Apocalypse?” by Alice B. Clagett, written and published on 25 September 2020 … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-kch ..

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Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License

Except where otherwise noted, “Pragmatic Prophecy” by Alice B. Clagett …  https://pragmaticprophecy.com … is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0) … https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ ..

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Google, telecommunications, communications, internet, government, United States, finance, social unrest, decentralization,

 

How Many Californians Are COVID-Safe? Here Is What the Pragmatic Prophet Says …

Image: “Youth Soccer in Small Town USA,” by Derek Jensen, 2005, in Wikimedia Commons … https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Youth-soccer-indiana.jpg … public domain

Written and published on 1 September 2020 by Alice B. Clagett

Dear Ones,

How many people here in California are COVID-safe? The figure is changing rapidly, and improving every day.

HOW MANY CALIFORNIANS ARE COVID-SAFE TODAY?

As of today, there have been 712,276 tested cases of COVID-19 in California, according to the Los Angeles Times. Only those people are being tested who exhibit COVID symptoms.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) currently holds that many more people … maybe even 40 percent of all the people in the United States who get COVID … are asymptomatic.

If 712,276 people so far are symptomatic and tested, and these are 60% of the people in California who have gotten COVID, then the total number who have had COVID in California would be 712,276 (symptomatic) divided by .6 = 1,187,127 people (symptomatic or asymptomatic).

Of these, 13,018 have died. Thus the total number of people who are now COVID-safe in California is 1,187,127 people who have had COVID, less 13,018 COVID deaths (as of today, according to the Los Angeles Times). That would be about 1,174,109 people … over a million … who are COVID-safe in California as of today.

HOW MANY CALIFORNIANS WILL BE COVID-SAFE IN TIME?

The population of California is 39.5 million. If deaths from COVID continue at the same rate as before, and the COVID vaccine is not made available, as hoped, this fall, then as the pandemic runs its course, how many California will end up COVID-safe? Here are my figures …

x / 39.5 million people in California = 1,174,109 COVID-safe people in California today / 1,187,127 Californians who have had COVID

x = (1,174,109 / 1,187,127) x 39.5 million

x = 39,066,844 Californians who will be COVID-safe after the pandemic ends.

–from Link: “How Many Californians Are COVID-Safe? Here is What the Pragmatic Prophet Says …,” written and published on 1 September 2020 by Alice B. Clagett … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-jMv ..

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Except where otherwise noted, “Pragmatic Prophecy” by Alice B. Clagett …  https://pragmaticprophecy.com … is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0) … https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ ..

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COVID-19, coronavirus, community health, health, California, COVID-safe,

How Likely Is It I Will See a Person Pass On of COVID in California? . Here Is What the Pragmatic Prophet Says.

Written and published on 11 August 2020, by Alice B. Clagett

Image: “Salon of the electric train 81-765 / 766/767 ‘Moscow’ with red stickers on keeping the distance. March-April 2020, the period of the COVID-19 pandemic,” by https://www.mos.ru/news/item/71988073/ … April 2020, in Wikimedia Commons … CC BY 4.0

Dear Ones,

I read in the Los Angeles Times that 99 people passed on of COVID in California yesterday (which seems like a pretty scary number, to me) …

Link: “Tracking the Coronavirus in California,” in the Los Angeles Times …  https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/ ..

I have been seeing these pretty high statistics for some time, here in California. Today I wondered how likely it would be I might see a person pass on of COVID, so I crunched the numbers. Here is what I found out …

There are about 41 million people in California, per Google.

(99 COVID deaths yesterday) divided by (41 million California population) times 100 (to get percent) = 0.0024 percent, which is to say, 0.0024 per 100 people.

That decimal point is way too small, so I recalculated for the number of deaths per 10 million people, like this …

(99 COVID deaths) divided by (41 million California population) times 10,000,000 (to get number of deaths per 10M) = 24 COVID deaths per 10M people. I guess I would have had to see 10 million people yesterday in order to see 24 people pass on of COVID?

But I don’t see more than 10 or 20 people on a usual day.

I thought to recalculate how many California people it would have taken to have 1 COVID death in the group yesterday. I figured it like this …

(99 COVID deaths) divided by (41 million California population) = (1 COVID death) divided by (‘x’ number of California people)

99 / 41,000,000 = 1/x
x = 41,000,000 /99 = 414,141 people

So I might expect to see 1 COVID death yesterday had I been amongst 414,141 people.

But I only see 10 or 20 people daily. Under lockdown conditions it seems to me I might never see a COVID death. That would explain why things seem so normal here in the San Fernando Valley, I guess.

Let’s say I took a public bus to work and served food to visitors at a fast food restaurant drive-in window. How many people would I have met yesterday in that case?

Let’s say I was one of 20 people on the public bus going to work, and one of 20 people on the bus on the way home. That would be 40 people encountered on the bus.

I see here that a fast food restaurant serves about 300 customers a day …

Link: “9 Fast Food Stats That Will Blow Your Mind,” in Fox Business … https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/9-fast-food-stats-that-will-blow-your-mind ..

Say there are 3 customers per car, and I am one of four servers in a 24-hour period. That might mean the fast food restaurant serves 100 cars a day (which is 300 customers divided by 3 people per car). I am one of four servers, so I might serve a fourth of the 100 cars daily. That would be 25 cars, and 25 drivers that I encounter daily.

Then there are the 10 people at home and on my own street, neighbors and friends.

So the total people encountered by a fast food server daily in California would be 40 on public transit, 25 cars served at the fast food drive-up window, and 10 people at home or on my street.

That would be a total 75 people I meet daily as a fast food server. As figured above, there is one daily COVID death in California per 414,141 people. That would be a great many more than the 75 people I would meet as a fast food server. So, I am guessing, the likelihood I might see a COVID death while serving fast food is still quite low.

I just wondered about this, as the Los Angeles Times daily COVID-19 statistics seem pretty scary to me. I guess we are not that likely to see anyone passing on of COVID during the entire course of the pandemic … which, to me, is very good news, in a way.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars
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–reposted from Link: “How Likely Is It I Will See a Person Pass On of COVID in California?” by Alice B. Clagett, written and published on 11 August 2020 … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-jsH ..

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Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License

Except where otherwise noted, “Pragmatic Prophecy” by Alice B. Clagett …  https://pragmaticprophecy.com … is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0) … https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ ..

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United States, California, COVID-19, COVID, coronavirus pandemic, community health, health,

Shop Till You Drop Dead of COVID? Here Is What the Pragmatic Prophet Says!

Image: “A Corner Shop in Boston, Massachusetts,” by Elvis Batiz, 15 June 2012 … in Wikimedia Commons … https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Boston_corner_shop.jpg … CC BY 2.0

The ‘word from on high’ is: HVAC in retail stores across Los Angeles may be causing customers to catch COVID-19.

I urgently ask Mayor Garcetti and Governor Newsom to mandate that California retailers sanitize the air filters in their HVAC systems daily.

I urge that President Trump propose similar measures to managers of high-rise buildings nationwide, with emphasis on New York and New Jersey.

Written and published on 29 July 2020, by Alice B. Clagett, the Pragmatic Prophet

–reposted from Link: “Shop Till You Drop Dead of COVID? Here Is What the Pragmatic Prophet Says!” Written and published on 29 July 2020, by Alice B. Clagett, the Pragmatic Prophet … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-jjr ..

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Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License

Except where otherwise noted, “Pragmatic Prophecy” by Alice B. Clagett …  https://pragmaticprophecy.com … is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0) … https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ ..

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community health, health, pandemic, COVID, COVID-19, HVAC, retail establishments, stores, restaurants, air filters, economics, economy, employment, United States, countries of Earth, California, Gavin Newsom, Eric Garcetti, President Trump, skyscrapers, high-rise buildings, New York, New Jersey, government, common good,

Water Your Garden with Bath Water? Here Is What the Pragmatic Prophet Says …

Image: “Man Carrying Two Buckets,” by TriviaKing at English Wikipedia, 22 June 2008, in Wikimedia Commons … https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Man_carrying_two_buckets.JPG … CC BY-SA 3.0 Unported

Written and published on 24 July 2020 by Alice B. Clagett
Location: Los Angeles, California

Dear Ones,

Water prices are so high here in Los Angeles these days the wild surmise goes round that the LA Department of Water and Power has been purchased by the mob to grow marijuana in the sewage treatment facilities, and that we homeowners are footing the tab! What with the COVID lockdown, there are no bar tabs to be footed today. Wilder urban legends have gone the rounds, over the years. Who can say?

Until the truth be laid bare, water in LA is costing up to $600 a month for a person with a backyard lawn and a modest home in the ‘burbs. How are we to afford to water even a container vegetable garden when water prices are so high? Here is what I came up with; it is cost effective, offers a little daily exercise, and feels just right for sustainable living …

I thought if I could find a very good stopper for my bathtub, and tough, flat-bottom buckets such as are used to feed horses in horse stalls, then I could scoop up the water in the tub after a shower and use it to water the vegetable garden.

I needed a water-tight drain stopper for the bathtub, and that was hard to come by. I found that, because of the age of my house, the tub drain I needed was not a standard size sold in the local hardware stores. Online I found 3 sizes of drain stoppers, and none of them fit the bathtub drain.

Finally I found at Amazon … http://www.amazon.com … a multi size bathtub stopper (1-1/8 inch to 1-7/8 inch). The brand was Silyconyc, it came in a two pack, and I found it offered a firm seal at the largest size graduation. If you cannot readily get a snug drain stopper for your bathtub, then the multi size drain stopper may work for you as well.

The next thing was to find durable buckets that would conform to the flat bottom of the tub. That was a little easier, as feed stores and Amazon sell ‘flat back’ plastic feed buckets with strong metal handles. I picked two buckets, each with two-gallon capacity, as very large buckets full of water would be too much for me to carry.

It turned out the buckets I picked were perfect for the job. One side was flat, so that the bucket would lie flat when the handle was attached to the wall of a horse stall. That flat side, laid against the bottom of the tub, allowed me to scoop up almost all the water in the tub.

I placed the partly full buckets on an old towel next to the tub just before taking the water outside, so that water would not drip through the house. This has proven a no muss, no fuss way to water my container garden using shower water.

In addition, I keep a regular bucket in my kitchen sink for dishwashing and daily use that water to keep up those outdoor plants that are not able to survive with the amount of landscape water allowed Los Angeles homeowners by the LA Department of Water and Power.

Hope these tips help green the gardens of LA!

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

Link: Silyconyc Multi Size Bathtub Stopper (2 pack) … at Amazon.com … https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B087ZQXVVX/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o04_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1 ..

Link: Little Giant Plastic Animal Feed Bucket (2 gallon) … at Amazon.com … https://www.amazon.com/LITTLE-GIANT-Flat-Back-Dura-Flex-Plastic/dp/B000HHLHPS/ref=sr_1_23?dchild=1&keywords=little+giant+feed+bucket&qid=1595617642&sr=8-23 ..

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–Alice Clagett

–reposted from Link: “Water Your Garden with Bath Water? Here Is What the Pragmatic Prophet Says …,” written and published on 24 July 2020 by Alice B. Clagett … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-jg3 ..

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Except where otherwise noted, “Pragmatic Prophecy” by Alice B. Clagett …  https://pragmaticprophecy.com … is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0) … https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ ..

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sustainable living, survival, water conservation, gardening,

COVID-19: Two Possible Timelines for End of Pandemic . by Alice B. Clagett

Written on 12 July 2020; published on 13 July 2020

  • FIRST TIMELINE: DEVELOPMENT OF COVID-19 VACCINE
  • SECOND TIMELINE: SIMILAR TO SPANISH FLU EPIDEMIC OF 1918

Dear Ones,

Here are two possible timelines for the end of the COVID-19 pandemic …

FIRST TIMELINE: DEVELOPMENT OF COVID-19 VACCINE

I read in a BBC article that a vaccine for COVID-19 is expected to become available in mid-2021. That would be about a year and a half after the beginning of the pandemic ….

Link: “Coronavirus Vaccine: When Will We Have One? by James Gallagher, at BBC News, 8 July 2020 … https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51665497 ..

If that were to prove true, and if everyone were to be vaccinated next year, then people will not be running into active virus as much in the people they meet.

For those who have had the virus, and have built up their immunity, that would be good, as their immune systems would not need to fight off reinfection through exposure to other people’s active viruses while working or shopping.

It seems to me that getting flu this winter (in 2020) might make it harder for the body to keep up a strong COVID immune response, simply because it might be ‘fighting on two fronts’ at once. But if there is a vaccine available mid-2021, then that year’s winter flu season would likely offer less of a challenge to COVID-susceptible people.

SECOND TIMELINE: SIMILAR TO SPANISH FLU EPIDEMIC OF 1918

The deadly Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 lasted 2 years and 2 months; I think that might be a timeline to plan for should there be no viable vaccine. That would put surcease at April or May 2022; quite some while away, but, I feel, well worth keeping in mind.

It might not seem so, but there will be an end to the pandemic one day. That is the history of pandemics down through time.

God bless you all and keep you safe. May you have plenty to eat, and a good roof over your head, and may each day present you with a new joy in His great Creation.

–Alice Clagett

–reposted from Link: “COVID-19: Two Possible Timelines for End of Pandemic,” written on 12 July 2020; published on 13 July 2020, by Alice B. Clagett … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-j97 ..

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Except where otherwise noted, “Pragmatic Prophecy” by Alice B. Clagett …  https://pragmaticprophecy.com … is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0) … https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ ..

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community health, health, COVID-19, coronavirus, pandemic,

COVID-19 and the USA: Is the Death Count Higher or Lower Than Expected?

Written and published on 8 July 2020 by Alice B. Clagett

Image: “Scared Girl,” by Victor Bezrukov, 27 January 2007, in Wikimedia Commons … https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Scared_Girl.jpg … CC BY 2.0

Image: “Scared Girl,” by Victor Bezrukov, 27 January 2007, in Wikimedia Commons … https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Scared_Girl.jpg … CC BY 2.0

Dear Ones,

Given the press on the state of COVID-19 in California since the Fourth of July, I checked whether the greater picture for the pandemic in California, and in the United States overall, is grim or reasonable. Here is what I found out …

There is a question whether deaths due to COVID-19 are being misclassified on the high side in the United States currently, similar to the issue they were being misclassified on the low side in March 2020, at the beginning of the pandemic. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) are aware of this issue, but cannot yet quantitate it, as there are state-by-state issues regarding standardization of statistical reporting.

Thus it seems reasonable to look at overall deaths in the United States overall, since the beginning of the pandemic in February 2020, and also state-by-state. That way we can ascertain whether overall deaths (including COVID-19, flu, pneumonia, and every other cause of death) are higher or lower than expected.

I turned to the CDC for the data. They say deaths in the United States, from whatever causes, are 4 percent greater than expected deaths for the period from 1 February to 4 July 2020. Ball-parking that, we might reasonably assume deaths from COVID-19 to have contributed most of that excess. That is the approach to the data taken as a given by the press and by all levels of  government in the United States, from city government, to state government, to government at the national level.

On the other hand, it could be that there is a range of numbers within which expected deaths are tallied, Taking that range into account, it is possible, from a multiple year perspective, that COVID-19 may not have contributed at all to this year’s excess deaths. It could be we are on the far end of the expectable range of deaths in 2020, and in the coming years there will be less deaths than expectable. In other words, excess expectable deaths this year might not be due to COVID-19 at all. That is the contrarian approach to the data.

From the stance of personal health and safety, it might be good to know which states have the highest numbers of deaths greater than expected since February of this year. We could take a look at deaths due to COVID or whatever other causes; that would be a figure beyond debate.

I see from the below chart that some states have had a notably higher percent of expected deaths than the United States in general, during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. These are Arizona (108%), Colorado (109%), District of Columbia (115%), Illinois (115%), Louisiana (107%), Maryland (116%), Massachusetts (123%), Michigan (112%), Minnesota (105%),  New Jersey (142%), New York (124%), New York City (203%), and Rhode Island (106%).

From this list the standouts in terms of having deaths greater than expected, from highest to lowest, are New York City (203%), New Jersey (142%), New York (124%), Massachusetts (123%), Maryland (116%), District of Columbia (115%), Illinois (115%), and Michigan (112%).

This table has the data in it …

Image: “United States Deaths from 2/1/2020 to 7/4/2020 as Percent of Expected Deaths, State by State,” from Link: “Daily Updates of Totals by Week and State: Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) … https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm … See: Table 2. Deaths Involving Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Pneumonia, and Influenza Reported to NCHS by Jurisdiction of Occurrence, United States, Week Ending 2/1/2020 to 7/4/2020 … public domain.

Image: “United States Deaths from 2/1/2020 to 7/4/2020 as Percent of Expected Deaths, State by State,” from Link: “Daily Updates of Totals by Week and State: Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) … https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm … See: Table 2. Deaths Involving Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Pneumonia, and Influenza Reported to NCHS by Jurisdiction of Occurrence, United States, Week Ending 2/1/2020 to 7/4/2020 … public domain.

In case the chart is too small to read, the data can be found here …

Link: “Daily Updates of Totals by Week and State: Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) … https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm … See: Table 2. Deaths Involving Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Pneumonia, and Influenza Reported to NCHS by Jurisdiction of Occurrence, United States, Week Ending 2/1/2020 to 7/4/2020

–Alice Clagett

–reposted from Link: “COVID-19 and the USA: Is the Death Count Higher or Lower Than Expected?” . by Alice B. Clagett, written and published on 8 July 2020 … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-j5B ..

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Except where otherwise noted, “Pragmatic Prophecy” by Alice B. Clagett …  https://pragmaticprophecy.com … is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA 4.0) … https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ ..

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COVID-19, coronavirus, community health, health, United States, California, government, politics, common good,

Sobre el Coronavirus

These recommendations for diet and COVID-19 seem well worth the read to me.

El Blog de Camilo Acosta

Comparto experiencias de cómo mis amigos terapeutas en el país de Camboya han comenzado a tratar el coronavirus con un muy buen éxito.

Se trata de la utilización del ajo blanco.  Lo usan de la siguiente manera:

Un solo diente de ajo se pela y se machaca, se le agregan unas 5 gotas de activador de sábila o alguna presentación de sábila de la que se disponga, se utiliza una manta pequeña y se le saca el jugo al ajo. Esa pequeña porción de jugo de ajo se coloca en un gotero. Se aplican 3 gotas en cada fosa nasal y el paciente comienza a estornudar y a excretar por la nariz los fluidos propios de la gripe. Lo hacen por dos veces al dia (cada vez con un ajo fresco).

Sugerencias de nuestros amigos Camboyanos para pacientes infectados con el coronavirus:

*Ingerir agua cada media hora para evitar la…

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Face Masks Cause COVID-like Symptoms . by Alice B. Clagett

Written and published on 21 June 2020

  • I FOUND PAPER MASKS CAUSED ME TO COUGH SPORADICALLY
  • I FOUND COTTON FABRIC FACE MASKS CAUSED MY LUNGS TO PRODUCE PHLEGM (MUCUS)

Image: “These are the face masks often used to prevent the spread of Coronavirus. They are used in countries with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreaks and are worn in hospitals as well as in public. They are not designed to protect the wearer from inhaling airborne bacteria or virus particles and are less effective than respirators, such as N95 or FFP masks,” by Nurse Together, in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surgical_mask#/media/File:Surgical_face_mask.jpg … CC BY-SA 4.0

Dear Ones, As people in Los Angeles are required to wear face masks in public because of the COVID-19 pandemic, I have been testing various masks while out and about town, and have found that I am experiencing COVID-like symptoms while wearing a face mask and shortly thereafter.

I FOUND PAPER MASKS CAUSED ME TO COUGH SPORADICALLY

In my own experience, I found when I wear the type of paper mask that is rectangular with folds I would cough sporadically. This I find an embarrassment when in a store, and also a concern, as a cough can result in expulsion from a store through the owners’ fear that I might have COVID.

Here is the type of mask I found caused me to cough sporadically when I wore it …

Image: Blue, rectangular, horizontally folded paper face mask … https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/61UYv03DuAL._AC_SL1200_.jpg

I refer here to the style of paper mask and not the specific brand of mask in the image, as I have only tested one brand so far.

I FOUND COTTON FABRIC FACE MASKS CAUSED MY LUNGS TO PRODUCE PHLEGM (MUCUS)

I have more to report regarding the cotton fabric face masks sold online. I have tried two kinds so far, each with two layers of fabric; one had horizontal pleats and the other did not …

Images of cotton fabric face masks … https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/61zt1-WgSbL._SL1200_.jpg  … and …  https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/81uF0e2Oa7L._AC_SL1500_.jpg ..

For me, these did not cause coughing, but they did cause production of thick, clear phlegm (mucus) that came up my windpipe and which I then needed to swallow. The phlegm production would start shortly after I donned the fabric masks, and would continue for some while after I took the fabric masks off.

I realize experiencing these symptoms while wearing paper or cloth masks, or for a while after taking them off, may cause concerns that the symptoms are caused by the coronavirus. In my case, though, I can vouch for the fact that both the coughing and the production of clear phlegm apparently have to do with wearing the masks.

I hope my experience in this regard will be reassuring to others. I feel one way to ascertain the cause might be to notice whether the symptoms only occur during and shortly after mask use. That is just my hunch; of course the thing to do, to be on the safe side regarding COVID-like symptoms is to seek competent medical advice.

I could conjecture that the paper masks might have tiny bits of paper in them that might be inhaled into the windpipe and might cause a tickle that triggers a cough. I might also guess that the effort of breathing through a fabric mask might make  heat build up in the lungs, causing the phlegm normally within them to become more liquid and consequently to flow upward more freely. These, though, would be but conjecture, and hardly worth the telling.

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

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–from Awakening with Planet Earth … https://www.awakeningwithplanetearth.com

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Creative Commons License
Except where otherwise noted, “Pragmatic Prophecy” … https://pragmaticprophecy.com/ … by Alice B. Clagett is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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COVID-19, coronavirus, health, community health, COVID symptoms, coughing, phlegm production, mucus production, lungs, face masks, masks, California, Los Angeles, United States,

Awakening with Planet Earth

Written and published on 21 June 2020

  • I FOUND PAPER MASKS CAUSED ME TO COUGH SPORADICALLY
  • I FOUND COTTON FABRIC FACE MASKS CAUSED MY LUNGS TO PRODUCE PHLEGM (MUCUS)

Dear Ones,

As people in Los Angeles are required to wear face masks in public because of the COVID-19 pandemic, I have been testing various masks while out and about town, and have found that I am experiencing COVID-like symptoms while wearing a face mask and shortly thereafter.

I FOUND PAPER MASKS CAUSED ME TO COUGH SPORADICALLY

In my own experience, I found when I wear the type of paper mask that is rectangular with folds I would cough sporadically. This I find an embarrassment when in a store, and also a concern, as a cough can result in expulsion from a store through the owners’ fear that I might have COVID.

Here is the type of mask I found caused…

View original post 415 more words

Side Trading of Stocks and Bonds: Broker-Client Conflict of Interest . by Alice B. Clagett

Written and published on 18 February 2020; updated on 12 June 2020
Previously titled: Question About Stock Brokerage Integrity and Hidden Client Risk

Image: “A Section of Midtown Manhattan in Daytime,” by user: AngMoKil, in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Architecture_of_New_York_City#/media/File:Pano_Manhattan2007_amk.jpg … CC BY-A 2.5

Image: “A Section of Midtown Manhattan in Daytime,” by user: AngMoKil, in Wikipedia … https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Architecture_of_New_York_City#/media/File:Pano_Manhattan2007_amk.jpg … CC BY-A 2.5

  • PUTTING SAVINGS IN BANKS
    • Potential Risks
  • INVESTING IN STOCKS AND BONDS THROUGH A STOCK BROKERAGE FIRM
    • Potential of Brokers Skimming Margin Cream
      • Question: Is This Type of Skimming Maybe Common Practice?
    • Possible Need to Liquidate a Client’s Holding without Their Knowledge: A Workaround Not in the Client’s Best Interests
      • The Temptation for Stock Brokers to Advocate High-Risk Instruments to Cover ‘Phantom’ Trades
    • My Question, and Why I Am Asking It

Dear Ones,

It seems possible to me there may be stock and bond brokerage conflict of interest with individual investors because of side trading by brokers. I say this because of experiences I had as an individual investor with a prestigious stock broker in years past. First some background regarding putting savings in banks, and then the question regarding side trading by brokers, and the ensuing conflict of interest …

PUTTING SAVINGS IN BANKS

If banks, say, take our savings into a savings account or CD, they are allowed to provide us a low rate of interest, and then they may invest that money in somewhat riskier ways, so as to earn our profit on the money we invest.

Potential Risks

The potential risk for the person who places his or her savings into a savings account or CD is the possibility of large-scale bank failures, as in the case of the Great Depression, when I recall my mom said people lined up on the streets trying to withdraw their savings from the banks, but were not able to because the banks failed.

These days, as I understand it, our bank savings are secured by the SEC or maybe FINRA, up to a certain per-person limit. That may mitigate the risk of large-scale bank failures … at least, up to a point.

INVESTING IN STOCKS AND BONDS THROUGH A STOCK BROKERAGE FIRM

Potential of Brokers Skimming Margin Cream

When we invest our savings in stocks and bonds, say, in a margin account, then it seems to me that the opportunity exists for the stock broker to benefit from our holdings in a way a little reminiscent of banks. For instance, might not the stock broker use our margin account to day trade equities or maybe bonds in hopes of skimming some cream off our account, with the client being none the wiser?

Question: Is This Type of Skimming Maybe Common Practice? Is that allowed, on Wall Street? Maybe it is common practice amongst stock brokerages, and I am not familiar with the practice?

This is the question I have: Do any of my readers know whether this skimming of margin cream is standard stock brokerage practice? If it is, then, I feel, there would be a potential broker-client conflict of interest …

Possible Need to Liquidate a Client’s Holding without Their Knowledge: A Workaround Not in the Client’s Best Interests

I know, from a year of day trading myself, that it is hard to beat the market through day trading. Sometimes, though, people get into the thrill of day trading, so much so that they do not want to look at the bottom line and find out for sure whether they bettered the market over the course of a year. Do you not feel this to be true?

I myself found, using the best software I could obtain, that after a great deal of work every morning, and plenty of thrills, I ended up with no profits (and no losses) at the end of a year.

The best of stock brokers intent on skimming margin cream would most likely know what I learned … that the chance exists that some of the client’s stocks would need to be liquidated because of a broker’s side traded margin deal gone south, unbeknownst to the client.

I remember in my mom’s time, stocks and bonds were actual pieces of paper that a brokerage handed to a client. Thus the client knew for sure what he or she owned; the stockholder or bondholder had the paper to prove it.

Today, however, investors often chose to leave their stock and bond certificates with their brokers. It is true, the investor can see on their monthly statement that they have such-and-such investments, numbered such and such. That, however, is the only proof they have that they have purchased and now own these stocks and bonds.

In a way, these stock brokerage statements are but figments; surely it might be possible, through sleight of hand, to sell some of the underlying instruments to pay off margin debt, without the client being wiser, the presumption being that similar instruments might be purchased, and their CUSIPs, for example, jimmied round, in the event the client wished to sell the (already sold) stock or bond, or to transfer the entire account to another brokerage.

In a sense, then, the stock and bond holdings of the modern-day brokerage client might be viewed as ‘phantom’ holdings. While possible, it seems to me such an approach to skimming margin cream might cause some last-minute sweat of the brow of the broker if the client were to decide to trade or transfer a ‘phantom’ stock or bond.

The Temptation for Stock Brokers to Advocate High-Risk Instruments to Cover ‘Phantom’ Trades. Here is a more difficult call from an ethical standpoint: The broker might wish to cover losses from ‘phantom’ margin trades by persuading the client to accept risky stocks and bonds that are likely to decrease in value. Then the risky instruments might be sold by the broker … while remaining as if held on the client’s statement … and the money from the sales used in ‘phantom’ day trading, with profit going to the broker, and phantom trading losses covered by the decreased cost of the broker’s purchase of the risky stocks as they go down in price.

What I am thinking is that the desire of stock and bond brokers to profit from ‘phantom’ trades might lead them to push very risky stocks onto a client, to cover the broker’s losses. In such instances, the financial interests of the broker would be opposed to the financial interests of his client, do you not think?

My Question, and Why I Am Asking It

I ask this because, in a stock and bond account I held a few years ago, I noticed that the annual statement of activity on the account apparently differed from the individual transactions listed online for the year. How could this be, I wondered? That is how with I came up with the above theory, and the above question.

I also recall being convinced by my then broker that purchase of Puerto Rico bonds was a low risk investment backed up by the buy recommendation of his prestigious stock brokerage. The bonds tanked in a spectacular manner.

What happened there, I wonder? Was it the broker who misrepresented the buy recommendation of the stock brokerage? Or could it have been that the stock brokerage itself was recommending risky stocks to individual investors, perhaps parlaying those recommendations against the inclinations of its savvy institutional investors to unload the Puerto Rico bonds. If either of these instances pertained, a conflict of interest between the broker or brokerage and the individual client would be evident.

The greater question is this: Could there be industry-wide abuse of a individual stock and bond client’s interests, as outlined above?

In love, light and joy,
I Am of the Stars

— from Link: “Side Trading of Stocks and Bonds: Broker-Client Conflict of Interest,” by Alice B. Clagett, Written and published on 18 February 2020; updated on 12 June 2020 … https://wp.me/p2Rkym-gvy ..

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Creative Commons License
Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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finance, banks, banking, stock brokerages, stocks, bonds, economy, economics, disclosure,